CBO Predicts Recession Will End in 2009 Without Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office predicted that the current economic recession will end in the second half of 2009 without the trillion dollar stimulus.
From The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019 (pdf):
CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. (The longest such recessions otherwise, the 1973–1974 and 1981–1982 recessions, both lasted 16 months. If the current recession were to continue beyond midyear, it would last at least 19 months.) It could also be the deepest recession during the postwar period: By CBO’s estimates, economic output over the next two years will average 6.8 percent below its potential—that is, the level of output that would be produced if the economy’s resources were fully employed (see Figure 1). This ecession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment rate. That rate, in CBO’s forecast, rises to 9.2 percent by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen near the end of the 1981–1982 recession.
The Congressional Budget Office even says the Obama Stimulus will actually hurt, not help, the economy.
The CBO (Table 2, page 12) also predicts that the GDP will drop to 14,224 Billion in 2009. This is 1.9% or $63 billion drop from 2008:
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And, Democrats want to pass a trillion dollar Spendulus bill to fix this?
Hat Tip Nano DayTrader
Related... Larry Summers admits Obama is playing politics with Spendulus Plan.
French Connection
So, if this is what the CBO predicts, then the "stimulus" package is really nothing more than a spending bill loaded with all of the "programs" that the dems haven't been able to push through congress in the last 12-16 years.
1I guess that pretty much sums it up, Dave. Unbelievable.
2About 70% of it assuredly, UNDave.
3If they think the recession would end without the stimulus, does that mean passing the stimulus will make the recession longer?
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4"He that lives upon Hope will die fasting." - Benjamin Franklin
skb, longer and deeper 2+ years out.
5The financial guys at the bus stop have been saying for the last year - the recession (they called it early) will be with us until late 2009 - early 2010 and then we will start to see an uptick. Don't know if they are always right but hey advised me not to buy a new apartment when I was looking. It was right before the bubble burst.
We should be worried that know one is listening to these reports.
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"Enjoy life, it's ungrateful not to." - Ronald Reagan
Hey Gpa, I'm plagarizing this. I just posted it on CS, because it is relevant, and the people that need to see it the most don't come over here anymore.
7Feel free any time, UNDave.
8"The Congressional Budget Office even says the Obama Stimulus will actually hurt, not help, the economy."
I keep hearing this over and over and over. And it makes total sense that if we have to pay for the stimulus package, it will extend the recession. All I can do is shake my head in disgust. I don't even know if I can stomach listening to him tonight. I may just catch highlights tomorrow and try to have a pleasant evening. Sheesh.
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9"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have." Thomas Jefferson
I find it amazing that I posted it, and it was completely ignored. Oh well.
10You posted this, Dave? Here?
11Nevermind, I misunderstood what you said.
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